The 2026 World Cup could emit 9 million tonnes of CO2
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, spread across the USA, Canada and Mexico, is on course to be the most carbon-intensive in history: around 9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, roughly double the official figure for Qatar 2022. The bigger story isn't the number. It's how hard honest carbon accounting turns out to be, even for the world's biggest events, and how easily a headline figure can be challenged. That's a problem every business now shares.
The headline number
A coalition of researchers (Scientists for Global Responsibility, the Environmental Defense Fund, Cool Down and the New Weather Institute) put the 2026 tournament at roughly 9 million tonnes of CO2e in their report FIFA's Climate Blind Spot. To make that tangible: it's about the same as putting 6.5 million average British cars on the road for a full year.
It is, by their estimate, the highest-emitting World Cup ever held, and it isn't close.
Where does it all come from?
Carbon footprints for mega-events follow a predictable shape, and the World Cup is no exception. Based on the breakdown FIFA published for Qatar 2022, adjusted for the very different shape of 2026, the emissions land in roughly three buckets:
- —Travel is the dominant share. At Qatar 2022, travel was about half of the entire footprint, with fan air travel alone around 2.4 million tonnes. 2026 is far worse: it has expanded from 32 to 48 teams and 104 matches, sprawled across three countries and a continent of distance. Teams, officials and millions of fans fly internationally to get there, then keep flying between host cities. Long-haul aviation is the single biggest lever, and 2026 pulls it hard.
- —Stadiums and infrastructure are around a quarter. Construction, fit-out and operation of venues. 2026 leans on existing stadiums more than Qatar did, which helps, but running 16 host cities still adds up.
- —Accommodation, energy and local transport make up the rest. Hotel nights for visiting fans, powering venues and fan zones, and ground transport between matches.
The exact split is contested, which is precisely the point.
The credibility problem
FIFA described the Qatar 2022 World Cup as "carbon neutral." That claim has been widely disputed. It rested on an official figure of 3.6 million tonnes and a set of carbon offsets that several independent reviewers questioned.
When experts re-ran the numbers, the gap was enormous:
- —Carbon analyst Mike Berners-Lee estimated the true figure was closer to 10 million tonnes, nearly three times FIFA’s number.
- —Carbon Market Watch put it as high as 18 million tonnes, and argued FIFA’s stadium emissions could be eight times too low, because FIFA spread the carbon cost of brand-new, single-purpose stadiums across a long "lifetime of use" they will never actually have.
The point isn't to single FIFA out. It's that the methodology and the assumptions behind a figure can change the answer several times over. A "carbon neutral" headline is only as good as the methodology beneath it.
Why this matters well beyond football
You don't run a World Cup. Your business probably emits somewhere between a few and a few hundred tonnes a year, not nine million. But the lesson scales down perfectly.
A carbon number is meaningless without a clear, stated methodology. "Carbon neutral," "net zero," "sustainable" are doing a lot of heavy lifting on websites and tender documents right now, and a growing share won't survive scrutiny. Buyers, investors and procurement teams have started asking how a figure was calculated, which factors were used, and what's an estimate versus a measurement.
That's the standard businesses are increasingly held to. A credible footprint states its standard (the GHG Protocol), names its emission factors (the UK Government's DEFRA figures), labels its estimates as estimates, and says plainly when it hasn't been independently verified. The number matters less than the working behind it.
The encouraging part: doing it properly used to mean a consultant, a five-figure invoice and a six-week wait. It doesn't any more. A small UK business can now answer the questions a tender or a customer is asking, a GHG Protocol aligned carbon report in the recognised format, the same day, from £149.
The World Cup will keep getting bigger, and its footprint with it. The least the rest of us can do is measure our own carefully, and show our working.